American Institute: Yemen is slipping into a nightmare scenario and needs a major deal
English - Saturday 03 July 2021 الساعة 06:11 pm
Aden, NewsYemen:
The Gulf States Institute in Washington saw that Yemen needs a new approach in dealing with the crisis by any upcoming UN envoy, warning that "the country is slipping into a nightmare scenario."
In an analysis prepared by Gregory D. Johnson, a former member of the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen, the institute said that in the absence of a change in the performance of the next special envoy, he will achieve the same results, as the previous three, pointing to the continuation of the war and causing more From the division into independent political regions, controlled by the most powerful warlord.
Johnson added that the last six years of the war revealed that the Yemeni parties are unable to resolve this conflict on their own.
He continued, "The fast-food solutions and temporary steps will not work," noting that "that is what the UN envoy, Martin Griffiths, did when he spent a large part of the past year campaigning for a joint declaration of a ceasefire."
He said that Griffiths failed, and the "Stockholm" agreement was not activated in December 2018, which is the only "flawed" deal that he succumbed to pressure to conclude to show any progress.
He noted that one of the clauses related to the future of Hodeidah failed to specify what was meant by "local security forces", which eventually allowed a group of Houthi fighters to hand over control of the city to another Houthi group.
Perhaps most importantly - the analysis says - is that the Stockholm Agreement allowed the Houthis to redeploy their fighters from Hodeidah to Marib, where they are participating in the current offensive.
He added, "It was not only the failure of Griffiths and those before him, but over the course of their successive periods, the price of war in Yemen increased significantly."
And he added: “What was often a bilateral conflict that required an agreement between the Houthis and the government of President Hadi, has now become a multi-faceted war with at least four main local armed groups and a variety of outside powers, all of which must witness the signing of any comprehensive peace agreement.” .
Johnson saw that Yemen needs international support, a comprehensive plan and a grand deal that links all aspects of the conflict - local and regional - in one package.
He stated that "at the present time, the Houthis see that the continuation of the conflict in Yemen is in their interest," adding that Iran "will need to convince them otherwise."
He pointed out that the absence of a comprehensive solution to the Yemeni crisis would make the country slip easily into a nightmare scenario, explaining that Saudi Arabia making a deal with the Houthis, and leaving the local civil war unaddressed, would dwindle international attention and continue fighting on the ground.
He stressed the need for the United States to fully engage, by virtue of its effective relationship with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and its affiliated parties, to lead these parties to any just peace.
He also noted that America needs to implement the peace deal with the Houthis and the help of Iran and Oman, both of which maintain good relations with the Houthis.
The Gulf States Institute in Washington said, "Both Russia and China should be involved in formulating the final solution, through their role in the Security Council to impose sanctions on the parties that reject the peace deal."
