Analysis: The Yemen war is no longer the real test for Iran and Saudi Arabia's rapprochement
English - Monday 10 July 2023 الساعة 08:50 am
Sana'a, NewsYemen, exclusive:
When Saudi Arabia and Iran signed the reconciliation agreement between them under the auspices of China on March 10, political analysts in the Arab region and the world, and even some diplomats, considered that ending the war in Yemen is the real test of the durability of this rapprochement, which came after nearly seven years of continuous acute tension between the two countries.
Almost 4 months have passed since that agreement, during which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia took practical steps to prove its goodwill to pass this test, as it stopped its military intervention against Iran's arm in Yemen, and led diplomatic efforts through its ambassador in Yemen, and in partnership with the Sultanate of Oman, to negotiate with the Houthis. On measures to end the war and rebuild. Beyond that, Saudi Arabia is still pressuring its allies from the Yemeni parties opposed to the Houthis to accept the results of negotiations with the militia, and to exercise restraint towards the latter's breaches of the armistice, which entered its second year last April. Despite the militia's escalation and breaches of the armistice on more than one front, and its continuous mobilization of its fighters and its threat to resume the war, Saudi Arabia continues to seek to end its military intervention and put pressure on the Houthis' opponents from other Yemeni parties, to stop the military escalation as well.
What did Iran do?
On the other hand, Iran not only did not exert any pressure on its arm in Yemen, but also continued to send weapons to it - the recently seized shipment in the waters of the Arabian Sea is the best evidence of this. While the opponents of the Houthis, including the president and members of the Presidential Leadership Council, were preoccupied with their internal disputes, the Houthi militia found an opportunity, while the truce has provided so far, to further prepare for the next round of war, and to move forward in provoking the parties represented in the Presidential Council and persisting in tightening the screws. economically on the liberated areas.
The Houthi militia would not have persisted in the threat and provocative escalation of the Presidential Leadership Council if Iran had exerted pressure on it similar to what Saudi Arabia is doing from the parties represented in the Council, not to mention its exploitation of the disputes that arise from time to time from this inclusive entity that the Yemenis rely on before the regional allies, in Breaking the stronghold of the militia with Iran's political and military support.
In addition, while the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement proceeded to reopen embassies and exchange visits between the two sides, Iran made a dangerous official statement by the head of its national oil company, Mohsen Khajeste Mehr, in late June, coinciding with the advent of Eid al-Adha. The Iranian oil official announced his country's intention to explore the "Durra field" rich in oil and gas located in the "divided subsea area" in the maritime borders between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian official added, "We agreed to allocate large resources to implement the development plan for this field in the board of directors of the National Iranian Oil Company, and we will start drilling as conditions are created."
What does "create conditions" mean?
In the context of its questioning of Iran's long-term intentions regarding the issue of its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, US media referred last May to a leaked statement by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during a meeting he held last January with senior security officials, in which he said that the Iranian Supreme National Security Council He implemented a temporary behavioral shift in the region in order to relieve the pressure on the regime at home, until the time comes to end the crisis of popular protests against the regime that began in September 2022. According to the leak published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Khamenei "waved the use of tougher and even more secrecy and stability.
The Supreme National Security Council is the body officially responsible for security negotiations with Iran's neighboring countries, including the agreement signed in Beijing by Ali Shamkhani, in his capacity as Secretary of the Council, with Musaed bin Muhammad Al-Aiban, the Saudi National Security Adviser. Last May, the Iranian president appointed a new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, three months before the end of Shamkhani's term.
Although the statement that provoked both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia was not made by a senior official in the Iranian state, observers of regional relations in the region viewed it as a message whose features are not yet clear, but its content is that "nothing can happen in the Gulf without Iran's consent." "- according to the writer Khairallah Khairallah.
The new test increases the fragility of convergence
Khairallah added, in his article on Sunday, that "what is most surprising is that the Iranian escalatory rhetoric regarding the Dorra field came after Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian's tour of the Gulf countries," and that the Kuwaitis heard from Abdollahian specifically "every sincere desire for cooperation." And that joint committees must be activated to discuss all issues, including border and demarcation issues.
The writer pointed out, "This is not the first time that Iran has threatened to start drilling, but its new timing coincides with the near end of the study plans requested by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to start work in the field, and perhaps at the beginning of next August."
The writer asked, "What does Iran want to say these days? It is clear that the message that the Islamic Republic wants to send is not only to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, but also to the United States and other international powers." He continued, "Iranian behavior towards Kuwait is nothing but an example of an approach approved by Tehran throughout the region: in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain..."..."The coming days will reveal the reason for this strange and surprising Iranian behavior in dealing with two Gulf Arab states that are working for There is a normal relationship between them on the one hand and the Islamic Republic on the other.
In addition, the Emirati academic, Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, commented, on Tuesday, on the recent Iranian provocation regarding the Al-Durra field, that it threatens the Gulf-Iranian rapprochement in general, describing this rapprochement as "fragile and in danger and may not last long," due to "the blatant Iranian assault on a Kuwaiti Saudi oil field".
The Emirati academic added, on his Twitter account: "The difficult Iranian neighbor does not return the greeting with a better one, but rather acts arrogantly, as usual, without regard to the principle of good neighborliness and dialogue."
Although Kuwait and Saudi Arabia responded to the Iranian statements through two statements by the foreign ministries of the two countries, to affirm their right to exploit the wealth of the neutral regions on their borders, and called on Iran to demarcate the maritime borders, observers of regional relations in the region believe that Iran's claims of having a right in the Dorra field can It will be a new source of tension in the region, and it may have repercussions on the recent reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In light of these indications of Iranian provocation that could restore tension between the Iranian regime and the Arab countries, the Houthi militia, Iran's arm in Yemen, is preparing for a new round of war. In conjunction with this Iranian escalation against Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the deputy governor of Hodeidah, Walid al-Qadimi, warned of the danger of the recent movements and developments of the Houthi militia in the ports of the city of Hodeidah, in the west of the country.
Al-Qadimi said that the militia established a sea lane outside the port of Salif for smuggling, coinciding with the establishment of a dock in the port of Ras Issa.
He added that all indications portend an upcoming battle linked to the Iranian agenda in the region, and the international navigation file in particular.
