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Middle East Eye: The Brotherhood of Yemen is suffering defeats on different fronts

English - Sunday 28 August 2022 الساعة 09:22 am

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NewsYemen, special translation:

The British "Middle East Eye" website said, "The multi-faceted conflict in Yemen is about to claim another victim: the Islah party, the branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen."

An analysis written by Fernando R. Carvajal - the expert on the United Nations Security Council Committee of Experts on Yemen between April 2017 and March 2019 - said that with the devastating war entering its eighth year, the rebalancing of political actors led to major defeats for the Islah party.

He added that the loss of a major center of gravity in the oil-rich southern province of Shabwa threatens the survival of the political Islah party, and could represent the most significant shift in the balance of power in the country since the outbreak of war in 2015.

And he added, "Shabwa, a strategically valuable area, has been under the control of the Islah party for years, giving it direct access to the Arabian Sea. The western mountains of Shabwa stretch along a valuable smuggling route to Dhamar and Sana'a, and a road towards the strategic Marib Governorate,  Which includes a major oil refinery, and there are a number of oil facilities operated by international companies in Shabwa."

He considered that "the conflict in Shabwa between Islah and the Southern Transitional Council is the product of a rivalry that dates back to the 1994 civil war," adding: "Recently, tensions have escalated amid the harsh response to civil protests by the former governor of Shabwa, who is pro-reform. His successor pledged to provide  Those accused of committing crimes against civilians were brought to justice, and a number of officers loyal to Islah were sacked.

The analysis stated that the Islah Party suffered defeats on various fronts, amid months of major transformations within the Yemeni political establishment.

He explained that Islah-affiliated elements in the national army were accused of abandoning military bases and sites to the Houthis and of committing crimes against unarmed civilians.  The Islah party lost its political standing and key government positions, and found itself moving away from its traditional sphere of influence.

The analysis stated: "The Islah Party lost lands to the Houthis in three northern governorates, Al-Jawf, Al-Bayda, and Marib. In addition, the (Brotherhood) and its allies lost Al-Bayda Governorate to the Houthis last year."

Consider the dismissal of Yemeni Vice President Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar earlier this year as another major setback for Islah. 

He pointed out that the Houthis made progress in Marib and Shabwa, last fall, which raised fears of a renewed invasion of the south by the Houthis based in Sanaa.

"Southern politicians and activists accused Islah officials of ordering the withdrawal of forces and allowing the Houthis to advance unimpeded towards Bayhan. Houthi control of this area will intensify threats to the southerners and neighboring Gulf states," he said.

 Dwindling hopes

"It is clear that Islah suffers from the repercussions of campaigns targeting the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Arab world, as the party has been accused of threatening the transitional process in Yemen. This hostility stems from a perceived ambition for reform to monopolize the Yemeni government," the analysis said.

Southerners believed that the only way to tame the Islah was to inflict a major defeat and remove the party's influence from all southern lands.

"Middle East Eye" stated that the recent accusations of Islah focus on its alleged relations with Houthi elements, noting that the security forces of the organization are accused of deploying soldiers from the northern governorates, who are seen as Houthi elements, to fight the Giants Brigades in Shabwa.

The analysis concluded by saying: that the Yemeni media accused Islah of inciting confrontation with the Presidential Leadership Council, while some of the media affiliated with Islah challenged the credibility of the Council, which may further fragment the fragile position of the coalition against the Houthis.